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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Are you as good at things \nas you think you are?"
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "How good are you at managing money?"
    } ]
  }, {
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    "dDurationMs": 2830,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "What about reading people's emotions?"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 16732,
    "dDurationMs": 3440,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "How healthy are you \ncompared to other people you know?"
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 20172,
    "dDurationMs": 2942,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Are you better than average at grammar?"
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Knowing how competent we are"
    } ]
  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "and how are skill stack up \nagainst other people's"
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 27993,
    "dDurationMs": 2179,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "is more than a self-esteem boost."
    } ]
  }, {
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    "dDurationMs": 4542,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "It helps us figure out when we can forge\nahead on our own decisions and instincts"
    } ]
  }, {
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    "dDurationMs": 4679,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "and when we need, instead, \nto seek out advice."
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "But psychological research suggests\nthat we're not very good"
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 42705,
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "at evaluating ourselves accurately."
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "In fact, we frequently overestimate\nour own abilities."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Researchers have a name \nfor this phenomena,"
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "the Dunning-Kruger effect."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "This effect explains \nwhy more than 100 studies"
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "have shown that people display \nillusory superiority."
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "We judge ourselves as better than others"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 64544,
    "dDurationMs": 3590,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "to a degree that violates \nthe laws of math."
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "When software engineers at two companies\nwere asked to rate their performance,"
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "32% of the engineers at one company\nand 42% at the other"
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "put themselves in the top 5%."
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "In another study, 88% of American drivers"
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "described themselves \nas having above average driving skills."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 89465,
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "These aren't isolated findings."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "On average, people tend to rate\nthemselves better than most"
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 94945,
    "dDurationMs": 7150,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "in disciplines ranging from health,\nleadership skills, ethics, and beyond."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "What's particularly interesting\nis that those with the least ability"
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "are often the most likely to overrate\ntheir skills to the greatest extent."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "People measurably poor \nat logical reasoning,"
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "grammar,"
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "financial knowledge,"
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  }, {
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      "utf8": "math,"
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  }, {
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      "utf8": "emotional intelligence,"
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "running medical lab tests,"
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 119357,
    "dDurationMs": 1280,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "and chess"
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 120637,
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "all tend to rate their expertise almost\nas favorably as actual experts do."
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "So who's most vulnerable to this delusion?"
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Sadly, all of us because we all have\npockets of incompetence"
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "we don't recognize."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "But why?"
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "When psychologists Dunning and Kruger\nfirst described the effect in 1999,"
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      "utf8": "they argued that people lacking\nknowledge and skill in particular areas"
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 148873,
    "dDurationMs": 2456,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "suffer a double curse."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 151329,
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "First, they make mistakes\nand reach poor decisions."
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "But second, those same knowledge gaps also\nprevent them from catching their errors."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "In other words, poor performers lack\nthe very expertise needed"
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 164449,
    "dDurationMs": 2970,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "to recognize how badly they're doing."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "For example, when the researchers studied"
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "participants in \na college debate tournament,"
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "the bottom 25% of teams \nin preliminary rounds"
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 175569,
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "lost nearly four \nout of every five matches."
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "But they thought they were winning\nalmost 60%."
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "WIthout a strong grasp \nof the rules of debate,"
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "the students simply couldn't recognize\nwhen or how often"
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      "utf8": "their arguments broke down."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "The Dunning-Kruger effect isn't a question\nof ego blinding us to our weaknesses."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "People usually do admit their deficits\nonce they can spot them."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "In one study, students who had initially\ndone badly on a logic quiz"
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      "utf8": "and then took a mini course on logic"
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    "tStartMs": 208040,
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "were quite willing to label\ntheir original performances as awful."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "That may be why people with a moderate\namount of experience or expertise"
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      "utf8": "often have less confidence\nin their abilities."
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      "utf8": "They know enough to know that \nthere's a lot they don't know."
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      "utf8": "Meanwhile, experts tend to be aware\nof just how knowledgeable they are."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "But they often make a different mistake:"
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      "utf8": "they assume that everyone else \nis knowledgeable, too."
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      "utf8": "are often caught in a bubble\nof inaccurate self-perception."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "When they're unskilled, \nthey can't see their own faults."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "So if the Dunning-Kruger effect \nis invisible to those experiencing it,"
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "what can you do to find out how good\nyou actually are at various things?"
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "First, ask for feedback from other people,"
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "and consider it, \neven if it's hard to hear."
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      "utf8": "Second, and more important, keep learning."
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      "utf8": "The more knowledgeable we become,"
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      "utf8": "the less likely we are to have\ninvisible holes in our competence."
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      "utf8": "Perhaps it all boils down \nto that old proverb:"
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      "utf8": "first make sure the other person\nisn't doing the same thing."
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