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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "There is a famous graph that shows ice‑cream  "
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "sales and shark attacks. But… does the \nfirst cause the latter?"
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    "tStartMs": 10320,
    "dDurationMs": 5440,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "In statistics, we must differ between \ncorrelation and causation. Correlation  "
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    "tStartMs": 15760,
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "means two things move together \nat the same time. Causation means  "
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    "tStartMs": 20400,
    "dDurationMs": 4800,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "one thing causes a change in the \nother. But there is more to it."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Correlations can be positive, negative, or zero. \nThink of: Ice cream sales and shark attacks;  "
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    "tStartMs": 31840,
    "dDurationMs": 6640,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Ice cream and raincoat sales; and ice \ncream and the number of pirates worldwide."
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 38480,
    "dDurationMs": 6720,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "They can be weak, strong, or even perfect. Like: \nHours playing video games and slices of pizza  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 45200,
    "dDurationMs": 8000,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "eaten; time spent studying vs test scores; \nthe number of left and right socks produced."
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    "dDurationMs": 4880,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Causations exist if one thing \naffects others—often multiple things. "
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    "dDurationMs": 1360,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "The effect can be strong,  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 59440,
    "dDurationMs": 6160,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "or weak—and between effects we often see \ncorrelations. But there is one problem."
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 65600,
    "dDurationMs": 5440,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Our brains love simple stories, \nsuch as X causes Y. This is why  "
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    "tStartMs": 71040,
    "dDurationMs": 4800,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "when we see a strong correlation, say \nkids’ shoe size and reading ability,  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 75840,
    "dDurationMs": 6320,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "we may think of causation. But three \nsolutions help us avoid these errors."
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 82160,
    "dDurationMs": 4560,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "As kids grow, they need larger \nshoes and get better at reading.  "
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    "dDurationMs": 5840,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "If a third factor drives correlating \nresults, we call it confounding."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Then there is reversed causality. We may \nthink that ice cream makes people happy,  "
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    "tStartMs": 97760,
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "but maybe happy people just have more reasons \nto buy ice cream? It's not that clear."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Spurious correlation exists when patterns appear \nby chance. For example: as the number of pirates  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 110640,
    "dDurationMs": 6560,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "decreased, we recorded increasingly hotter \ndays—but there’s no plausible common cause."
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    "tStartMs": 117200,
    "dDurationMs": 6240,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "There are three questions to test a causal claim:\nDid A happen before B? "
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    "tStartMs": 123440,
    "dDurationMs": 6400,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "What could cause both?\nIs there a plausible path from A to B?"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 129840,
    "dDurationMs": 4080,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Suppose someone claims that students \nwho sleep more get better grades. "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 133920,
    "dDurationMs": 6400,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "1. Does longer sleep come before better grades?\n2. Do organized students maybe do both:  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 140320,
    "dDurationMs": 4160,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "sleep more and study more?\n3. Sleep may boost attention  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 144480,
    "dDurationMs": 4560,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "and memory—but can it explain better grades?"
    } ]
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    "tStartMs": 149040,
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "To look for a real causal link, serious social \nscientists typically turn to three methods."
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 155920,
    "dDurationMs": 6480,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "In Randomized Controlled Trials, people are \nrandomly put into two different situations—say,  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 162400,
    "dDurationMs": 5200,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "school classes with 15 students and \nclasses with 25. Scientists then  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 167600,
    "dDurationMs": 5440,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "look at what happens and may find that one \ngroup learns faster than the other—ideally,  "
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 173040,
    "dDurationMs": 8000,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "that experiment then gets replicated.\nRCTs are considered the gold standard of research."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 181040,
    "dDurationMs": 6960,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Natural Experiments are real‑world events that \ncreate “as if random” groups —the Mariel Boatlift  "
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 188000,
    "dDurationMs": 8800,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "is such an example. In 1980, 125,000 Cuban \nrefugees arrived in Miami almost overnight.  "
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 196800,
    "dDurationMs": 5840,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "With all these new workers, local employees \nfeared for their jobs. But economists later  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 202640,
    "dDurationMs": 7200,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "compared the situation in Miami to similar \ncities and found wages were hardly affected."
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 209840,
    "dDurationMs": 6720,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Longitudinal Studies track the same people over \nmany years to check time order. The Grant Study,  "
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 216560,
    "dDurationMs": 7360,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "for example, tracked 268 Harvard-educated \nmen since 1938. It found that alcoholism  "
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 223920,
    "dDurationMs": 4480,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "was the main cause of a divorce and \nthat men who earned more typically had  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 228400,
    "dDurationMs": 6800,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "\"warm\" childhood relationships with their \nmothers —those who earned less, didn’t."
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "To help us find a causal link, \nit's useful to compare apples  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 239200,
    "dDurationMs": 7120,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "with apples—such as grouping people by age, \nincome, or lifestyle—when we study them.."
    } ]
  }, {
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    "dDurationMs": 6000,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Now it's your turn! Imagine you see this \nheadline:“Kids with more books at home do  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 252320,
    "dDurationMs": 5040,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "better in school.” First ask yourself \nthe three questions to test the causal  "
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 257360,
    "dDurationMs": 6480,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "claim and then design a test to find out. \nShare your findings in the comments below."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 271280,
    "dDurationMs": 2160,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "If you found this helpful, \ncheck out our other videos,  "
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 273440,
    "dDurationMs": 4720,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "join us on youtube or on patreon.com/sprouts.\nFor more information, classroom exercises  "
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 278160,
    "dDurationMs": 5009,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "or videos without background \nmusic, visit sproutsschools.com."
    } ]
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