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  "events": [ {
    "tStartMs": 6810,
    "dDurationMs": 1190,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Meet Lucy."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 8000,
    "dDurationMs": 1980,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "She was a math major in college,"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 9980,
    "dDurationMs": 4130,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "and aced all her courses in probability \nand statistics."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 14110,
    "dDurationMs": 4352,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Which do you think is more likely: that \nLucy is a portrait artist,"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 18462,
    "dDurationMs": 5028,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "or that Lucy is a portrait artist \nwho also plays poker?"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 23490,
    "dDurationMs": 4016,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "In studies of similar questions, up to 80 \npercent of participants"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 27506,
    "dDurationMs": 2504,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "chose the equivalent \nof the second statement:"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 30010,
    "dDurationMs": 3636,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "that Lucy is a portrait artist \nwho also plays poker."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 33646,
    "dDurationMs": 4722,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "After all, nothing we know about Lucy \nsuggests an affinity for art,"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 38368,
    "dDurationMs": 3812,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "but statistics and probability \nare useful in poker."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 42180,
    "dDurationMs": 2558,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "And yet, this is the wrong answer."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 44738,
    "dDurationMs": 1790,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Look at the options again."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 46528,
    "dDurationMs": 3740,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "How do we know the first statement \nis more likely to be true?"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 50268,
    "dDurationMs": 4180,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Because it’s a less specific version \nof the second statement."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 54448,
    "dDurationMs": 3670,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Saying that Lucy is a portrait artist \ndoesn’t make any claims"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 58118,
    "dDurationMs": 3500,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "about what else she might or might not do."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 61618,
    "dDurationMs": 4890,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "But even though it’s far easier to imagine\nher playing poker than making art"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 66508,
    "dDurationMs": 1880,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "based on the background information,"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 68388,
    "dDurationMs": 4685,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "the second statement is only true if she \ndoes both of these things."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 73073,
    "dDurationMs": 4201,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "However counterintuitive it seems \nto imagine Lucy as an artist,"
    } ]
  }, {
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    "dDurationMs": 5953,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "the second scenario adds another condition\non top of that, making it less likely."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 83227,
    "dDurationMs": 4529,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "For any possible set of events, the \nlikelihood of A occurring"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 87756,
    "dDurationMs": 5722,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "will always be greater than the likelihood\nof A and B both occurring."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 93478,
    "dDurationMs": 3890,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "If we took a random sample of a million \npeople who majored in math,"
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  }, {
    "tStartMs": 97368,
    "dDurationMs": 4152,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "the subset who are portrait artists might \nbe relatively small."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 101520,
    "dDurationMs": 2210,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "But it will necessarily be bigger"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 103730,
    "dDurationMs": 3660,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "than the subset who are portrait artists \nand play poker."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 107390,
    "dDurationMs": 3610,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Anyone who belongs to the second group \nwill also belong to the first–"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 111000,
    "dDurationMs": 1490,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "but not vice versa."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 112490,
    "dDurationMs": 5110,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "The more conditions there are, \nthe less likely an event becomes."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 117600,
    "dDurationMs": 4619,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "So why do statements with more conditions\nsometimes seem more believable?"
    } ]
  }, {
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    "dDurationMs": 3320,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "This is a phenomenon known as \nthe conjunction fallacy."
    } ]
  }, {
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    "dDurationMs": 3800,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "When we’re asked to make quick decisions, \nwe tend to look for shortcuts."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 129339,
    "dDurationMs": 3120,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "In this case, we look for what seems \nplausible"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 132459,
    "dDurationMs": 3010,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "rather than what is statistically \nmost probable."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 135469,
    "dDurationMs": 4431,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "On its own, Lucy being an artist doesn’t \nmatch the expectations"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 139900,
    "dDurationMs": 2170,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "formed by the preceding information."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 142070,
    "dDurationMs": 2740,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "The additional detail about \nher playing poker"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 144810,
    "dDurationMs": 3360,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "gives us a narrative that resonates \nwith our intuitions—"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 148170,
    "dDurationMs": 2170,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "it makes it seem more plausible."
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 150340,
    "dDurationMs": 4341,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "And we choose the option that seems more\nrepresentative of the overall picture,"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 154681,
    "dDurationMs": 2950,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "regardless of its actual probability."
    } ]
  }, {
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    "dDurationMs": 3590,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "This effect has been observed \nacross multiple studies,"
    } ]
  }, {
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    "dDurationMs": 3680,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "including ones with participants \nwho understood statistics well–"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 164901,
    "dDurationMs": 2714,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "from students betting on \nsequences of dice rolls,"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 167615,
    "dDurationMs": 5603,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "to foreign policy experts predicting \nthe likelihood of a diplomatic crisis."
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  }, {
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    "dDurationMs": 4338,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "The conjunction fallacy isn’t just a \nproblem in hypothetical situations."
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "Conspiracy theories and false news stories"
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  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "often rely on a version of the conjunction\nfallacy to seem credible–"
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  }, {
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    "dDurationMs": 3630,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "the more resonant details are added \nto an outlandish story,"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 188904,
    "dDurationMs": 2850,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "the more plausible it begins to seem."
    } ]
  }, {
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    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "But ultimately, the likelihood \na story is true"
    } ]
  }, {
    "tStartMs": 194644,
    "dDurationMs": 5150,
    "segs": [ {
      "utf8": "can never be greater than the probability \nthat its least likely component is true."
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